Financial Indicators - 26 July

What you should know this morning

  • The rand is unchanged this morning at R14.85/$ after closing weaker on Friday (R14.85/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MXN (+0.%), TRY (+0.2%) and PEN (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.1%), ZAR (-1.0%) and HUF (-0.6%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 194.83 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.17 million; recoveries are at 176.77 million.
  • The US has 35.19 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 626,762.
  • India has 31.41 million cases and 420,996 deaths; Brazil has 19.68 million cases and 549,999 deaths.

  • US infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci has warned that the US now faces a worst-case scenario of daily deaths reaching 4,000.
  • Booster vaccine shots may be needed for the most vulnerable.
  • German politicians are considering the possibility of making vaccinations compulsory and implementing tougher restrictions on the unvaccinated.
  • France has protested similar plans despite new infections surging.
  • Globally, over 3.85 billion vaccines have been administered across 180 countries at a rate of 33.7 million doses a day.

  • Investors’ focus is on the US FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with the pace of the bond-buying program of keen interest.
  • The markets will be watching how the Fed balances the downside risks from the Delta virus variant with the upside risks to inflation.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely reiterate his "transitory" language on inflation.
  • US Q2:21 GDP is due out on Thursday; growth is expected at 8.5% q/q, from 6.4% q/q in Q1:21, fuelled by vaccinations, stimulus, and the re-opening of the US economy.
  • Q2:21 Eurozone GDP is also due this week; while growth is unlikely to be very strong, it is expected to confirm the end of the double-dip recession.
  • Eurozone inflation for July is also due out this week.

  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 6.52 million; fatalities are at 164,792.
  • Morocco has 579,272 reported cases, Nigeria 171,111, Ghana 101,170, Kenya 197,409.

  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.377 million; 9,718 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 149,865; Gauteng continues to lead the way, with 36,768 active cases followed by the Western Cape with 30,887.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 287 yesterday, to 69,775; 2.158 million people (or 90.8%) have recovered from the virus.
    14.56 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 36,569 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The positivity rate is 26.6%.
  • 6.384 million vaccines have been administered to date; 20,392 vaccines were administered yesterday.

  • President Cyril Ramaphosa has eased lockdown restrictions and moved the country to adjusted Level 3 as it passes the peak of the third wave.
  • The curfew remains from 10pm to 4am; schools are re-opening today.
  • Alcohol sales are now permitted; off-site alcohol sales will be allowed from 10am to 6pm from Monday to Thursday.
  • On-site alcohol consumption can resume but must end by 8pm.
  • Interprovincial travel for leisure will resume from today.
  • Night vigils and after-funeral gatherings are still not permitted.
  • Vaccinations for the 18-34 year old will commence from 1 September.
  • The president noted that the country has enough vaccines to last until the end of the year, with 31 million more vaccines due to arrive in SA over the next 2-3 months.
  • The president reinstated the Covid-19 Relief grant of R350 to the end of March 2022 and announced a R400 million state contribution to a humanitarian relief fund and support for uninsured businesses.
  • Excise tax payments by the alcohol sector have been referred for three months.

  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 42.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.8% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $73.59/bbl; ($74.10/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1807/oz ($1802/oz*).
  • SA CDS 207bps*, higher than Brazil 173bps* and lower than Turkey 383bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.26%*, German bund at -0.420%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.42%*, SA’s R186 at 7.33%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 16h00: US new home sales (June)

 SBR’s Shireen Darmalingam