What you should know this morning

Financial Indicators

  • The rand is slightly weaker this morning at R14.44/$ after closing stronger on Friday (R14.43/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PEN (+1.1%), ZAR (+1.0%) and TRY (+0.6%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TWD (-0.4%), CNY (-0.3%) and THB (-0.3%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 191.22 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.1 million; recoveries are at 174.18 million.
  • The US has 34.96 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 624,746. 
  • India has 31.14 million cases and 414,141 deaths; Brazil has 19.37 million cases and 542,262 deaths.
  • US hospital admissions rose 33.7% in the week ending 16 July, compared with the previous seven days.
  • Cases of the Delta variant may be undercounted in the US, partly because those who get tested are more likely to be younger and have clear symptoms such as loss of smell.
  • Pandemic restrictions are ending in England today but while infections have been soaring.
  • The Australian state of Victoria extended its lockdown today as authorities battle an outbreak.
  • Sydney has been in a 5-week lockdown after the Delta variant triggered the country’s worst outbreak this year.
  • Singapore reported the highest number of new cases in 11 months as infections surge.
  • Thailand reported 11,784 new infections today, the highest single-day increase since the pandemic began.
  • Globally, over 3.62 billion vaccines have been administered across 180 countries at a rate of 32.4 million doses a day.
  • The PBOC is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate steady tomorrow despite recently cutting the banks' reserve ratios in a surprise move. 
  • The Bank of Indonesia is set to hold its key rate at 3.5% this week. 
  • Japan’s June CPI this week is expected to have picked up slightly, while the adjusted trade surplus in June might have narrowed; both would be due to higher energy prices.
  • In the US, the focus will be on the jobless claims data, which may have ticked down for the week ending 17 July. 
  • June housing starts and existing home sales may have picked up modestly.
  • US PMIs for July on Friday may show a slight softening.
  • In Europe PMI surveys are due for July and will likely provide a clear picture about how European economies are faring as the recovery in services catches up with manufacturing. 
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 6.28 million; fatalities are at 158,329.
  • Morocco has 557,632 reported cases, Nigeria 169,532, Ghana 98,817, Kenya 192,758.
  • The WHO has noted that deaths on the continent have climbed steeply for the past five weeks. 
  • The WHO reads this as a warning sign that hospitals in the most affected countries are reaching a breaking point.
  • Health systems in these countries are facing dire shortages of the requisite healthcare workers, supplies, equipment and infrastructure.
  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.295 million; 11,215 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 178,072; Gauteng continues to lead the way, with 59,129 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 31,997.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 183 yesterday, to 66,859; 2.05 million people (or 89.3%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 14.24million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 38,287 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The positivity rate is 29.3%.
  • 5.095 million vaccines have been administered to date.
  • Investor focus will be on the SARB’s MPC meeting this week; it is expected that the repo rate will be kept unchanged at 3.5%.
  • We will look to changes to the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts.
  • The June CPI print is due for release on Wednesday; inflation is expected to have moderated to 4.8% y/y, from an increase of 5.2% y/y in May.
  • The SARB will release the May leading indicator this week, which is expected to have increased further from 125.8 pts in April.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 40.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up marginally this morning, and down by 4.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $72.92/bbl; ($73.59/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1813/oz ($1812/oz*).
  • SA CDS 194bps*, higher than Brazil 173bps* and lower than Turkey 379bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.29%*, German bund at -0.353%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.38%*, SA’s R186 at 7.51%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 16h00: US NAHB housing market index (July)